The Glitch at the Thanksgiving Dinner Table 🦃

Why Your Uncle Says the Economy is Booming, But Your Bank Account Disagrees.

The "Invisible Guest" 👻

This Thursday, there is going to be an uninvited guest at your family dinner.

You won’t see him, but you will definitely feel him. He’s sitting right between the mashed potatoes and that one uncle who won’t stop talking about his stock portfolio.

Let’s set the scene. You know exactly how this conversation is going to go.

Uncle Steve (The "Boomer" Optimist): He’s looking at his 401(k). He sees the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. He sees the news saying GDP is ripping at 3.8%. To him, the "American Dream" is alive, well, and printing money. 📈

You (The "Real World" Operator): You’re looking at your P&L. You’re seeing clients pull back. You’re seeing hiring freezes. You’re seeing friends - smart, capable professionals - who have been "open to work" on LinkedIn for six months. To you, the economy feels fragile, expensive, and weirdly hollow. 📉

Usually, one of you is wrong. Usually, facts are facts.

But this year? You are both right. And that is the terrifying part.

We are living through a "Glitch" in the economic matrix. A math problem that - according to the Federal Reserve’s own panicked meeting minutes - simply isn't adding up.

Economists have a polite name for it: A "Jobless Expansion."

I have a different name for it: The Great Decoupling.

The "Math Ain't Mathing" Moment 🧮

For the last fifty years, the "American Deal" was simple: If the economy grows, businesses hire more people.

GDP goes up = Employment goes up. Corporations make money = You get a job.

They were two lines on a graph that moved together like dance partners. When one moved, the other followed.

But in late 2025, that link has been snapped. The partners aren't dancing anymore. One is moonwalking, and the other is falling off the stage.

Here is the hard data that is currently keeping the Federal Reserve awake at night (and should be keeping you awake, too):

• The Economy is Sprinting: We are producing goods and services at a record clip. GDP is growing at 3.8%, which is historically a "boom" number.

• The Labor Market is Limping: While the economy got richer, the workforce actually shrank. The economy lost 13,000 jobs in June and another 4,000 jobs in August.

Read that again.

We generated billions in new wealth... and we needed fewer people to do it.

In a normal economy, we add 200,000 jobs a month during a boom. Currently, the 3-month average is hovering around 62,000. That is barely a pulse.

So, when Uncle Steve tells you the economy is "great" between bites of stuffing, he’s technically correct. The Economy (Capital) is doing great.

But the Market for Humans (Labor) is entering a recession.

This is the "Glitch." And unless you understand why it’s happening, you are going to be the victim of it.

The "Efficiency Bet": Why Robots Are Cheaper Than You 🤖

The average employee thinks their boss stops hiring because they are "greedy" or "mean."

The Operator knows the truth: It’s just a spreadsheet calculation.

In 2025, corporate America isn't hoarding cash. They are spending money like drunken sailors. But they have stopped spending it on Headcount and started pouring it into Horsepower.

To understand why, you have to understand the two most boring words in accounting: CapEx and OpEx.

CapEx vs. OpEx (A Crash Course for the Non-Accountant) 📉

Let’s look at this through the eyes of a CFO who is trying to survive the next 12 months.

OpEx (Operating Expenditure): This is Dave.

Dave is a human employee. Dave requires a salary. Dave needs health insurance. Dave gets tired at 4:00 PM. Dave needs "culture." And most importantly, Dave gets more expensive every single year because of inflation. In the eyes of the P&L, Dave is a never-ending, variable liability.

CapEx (Capital Expenditure): This is a GPU Cluster (or AI Software).

The GPU is a one-time purchase. It is a fixed cost. It depreciates (which means a massive tax write-off! 💸). It works 24/7 without coffee breaks. It doesn't try to unionize. And once you buy it, it’s yours. In the eyes of the P&L, the GPU is a depreciating asset.

In a normal economy, you need Dave to run the machine.

In the "Glitch" economy of 2025, the machine is Dave.

The 28% "Gold Rush" ⛏️

This isn't just a theory. The money trail proves it.

While hiring has frozen, business investment is absolutely exploding.

In the first half of 2025, private investment in "Information Processing Equipment and Software" grew at an annualized rate of 28.3%.

Think about that number. If hiring grew at 28%, we’d have negative unemployment. Instead, companies are taking 4.4% of the entire US GDP and dumping it into software and hardware.

They aren't "saving money." They are actively swapping out their engine. They are betting that an AI agent can do the work of a Junior Associate for 1/100th of the cost.

And frankly? They are winning the bet.

The Tariff Factor (The Final Nail) 🔨

And here is the kicker that nobody at the Thanksgiving table is talking about: Tariffs.

With new trade policies and tariffs on the horizon, the cost of physical goods is about to go up. If you sell widgets, your cost of goods sold (COGS) is going to spike.

To keep their profit margins healthy, business owners have to cut costs somewhere else. They can't cut the cost of materials (tariffs). They can't cut the cost of shipping (energy).

So, what’s left to cut? Labor.

The "Efficiency Bet" is a survival mechanism. Companies are shedding "OpEx" (people) now so they have the cash flow to survive the "CapEx" (tech) transition.

They are building a fortress of automation to protect themselves from the uncertainty of 2026.

If you are waiting for a job offer, you are standing in the construction zone without a hard hat.

The "Fog of War": Why Washington Didn't Warn You 🌫️

If this "Jobless Expansion" is so obvious, why didn't you hear about it on the news in October? Why didn't the "experts" warn you?

Because the experts were blindfolded.

While you were trying to run your business this fall, Washington was busy shutting itself down.

The 43-Day Blackout 🕯️

We conveniently forget that we just lived through a massive 43-day government shutdown.

While politicians were bickering, the agencies responsible for counting jobs (like the Bureau of Labor Statistics) were essentially turned off. This created a "data drought" right at the exact moment the economy started to fracture.

For nearly six weeks, we were flying through a hurricane with no radar. The "strong" job numbers you saw in headlines? Many of those were estimates based on historical trends - trends that, as we discussed, are broken.

The shutdown hid the bodies. It delayed the critical reports that would have shown the cracks in the foundation, leaving business owners to make decisions based on "vibes" rather than facts.

The Fed is "Rattled" (And Flying Blind) 🦅

If you think the Federal Reserve has a master plan, you haven't read their latest minutes.

The minutes from the October meeting reveal a room full of terrified economists who don't know which lever to pull.

They are currently paralyzed by a "strong split" on what to do next.

• Half the room looks at the GDP (3.8%) and screams, "Raise rates! The economy is too hot!".

• The other half looks at the hiring freeze and screams, "Cut rates! The labor market is dying!".

They are arguing over a map that doesn't exist anymore. They are trying to use 20th-century tools (interest rates) to fix a 21st-century problem (AI automation).

The Fed Chair himself admitted they are navigating an "incomplete picture".

The Takeaway: If you are waiting for Jerome Powell to save you, you are going to be waiting a long time. The pilots are arguing in the cockpit while the passengers are strapped in the back.

You are on your own. And frankly? That’s exactly where an Operator wants to be.

The White-Collar Recession (RIP "Learn to Code") 📉

Here is the part that hits closest to home for everyone reading this.

In previous recessions, the pain was usually felt on the factory floor or the construction site. The "laptop class" - the consultants, the coders, the agency owners, the accountants - were safe. We were the "knowledge workers." We were immune.

Not this time.

The 2025 contraction is a precision strike on the White-Collar workforce.

The "Email Class" is Being Deleted 📧

When you dig into that June/August job loss data, the specific sectors are terrifying.

We aren't losing jobs in hospitality (people still want tacos). We are losing jobs in "Professional and Business Services."

This sector shed 20,000 jobs in September alone.

This is the engine room of the American middle class. These are the jobs your parents told you to get. "Go to college, get a degree, get a safe corporate job."

Well, that "safe corporate job" is exactly what the "Efficiency Bet" is targeting. Why? Because AI is really, really good at being a middling white-collar employee. It can write the email, check the code, and review the contract faster than a human can.

The "Nurse Economy" 🏥

So, where is the growth?

The only sector showing robust, consistent growth right now is Healthcare (+43,000 jobs).

Think about the irony of that. We are moving from an economy of Innovation (creating new things) to an economy of Maintenance (taking care of old people).

Unless you plan on trading your laptop for scrubs and a bedpan, this "hiring boom" isn't for you. The economy is actively hollowing out the middle.

If you are sitting at Thanksgiving dinner wondering why it feels harder to close deals or find a new role, stop blaming yourself. The market for "average knowledge work" is crashing.

The Black Friday Lie (Why You’re Broke) 🛍️

So if jobs are vanishing, why is the news telling you that Black Friday spending is going to be huge?

Because they are confusing "Spending" with "Debt."

This year, retailers panicked. They started "Black November" on the 1st of the month because they know the consumer is tapped out.

• Defensive Spending: 84% of shoppers say they are cutting back due to inflation and tariff fears.

• The "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) Trap: We aren't buying gifts with cash. We are financing blenders. BNPL usage is hitting record highs because people don't have liquidity.

Black Friday isn't a celebration of abundance this year. It’s a rescue mission for retail, funded by consumer debt.

The 2026 Playbook: Don't Get Hired, Get Funded 🚀

So, is it all doom and gloom? Should you just give up and eat extra pie?

Hell no.

The "Operator" looks at the "Jobless Expansion" and sees the massive opportunity hiding in plain sight.

If corporations are getting rich by running lean, automated businesses... why aren't you doing the same thing?

The Solopreneur Revolution ✊

The "Jobless Expansion" isn't a bug; it’s a feature. It is not going away in January. The era of bloating your staff to feel important is over.

The winners of 2026 will be the Solopreneurs and the Micro-Enterprises - the businesses that do $1M+ in revenue with zero to two employees.

You don't need a "staff" anymore. You need a System. You don't need "Headcount." You need Capital.

The Bank vs. The Machine 🏦

This brings us back to the "Glitch."

Traditional banks are terrified of lending to you for Payroll (OpEx) because they know what we just discussed: Employees are risky liabilities.

But the smart money (and the FinTech world) loves lending for Systems (CapEx).

They want to fund your ad spend. They want to fund your inventory. They want to fund the AI tools that let you scale without hiring.

The Pivot:

• The Amateur begs for a job in a shrinking market.

• The Operator secures the funding to build a machine that replaces the job.

This Thanksgiving, don't get mad at the economy. Just stop trying to play by the old rules.

Eat the turkey. Watch the game. Ignore Uncle Steve’s stock tips.

But on Monday morning? Stop looking for a boss. Start looking for funding.

The "Glitch" is only a problem if you are the one being deleted. For everyone else, it’s the greatest leverage point in history.

Happy Thanksgiving. 🦃

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